A New Spatial Multiple Discrete-Continuous Modeling Approach to Land Use Change Analysis

Title: A New Spatial Multiple Discrete-Continuous Modeling Approach to Land Use Change Analysis
Author: Dubey, Subodh K
Publication Date: 2013
Dewey Decimal Number: 333.7315
Call Record: DIGITAL      333.7315  Dubey  2013


A New Spatial Multiple Discrete-Continuous Modeling Approach to Land Use Change Analysis

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National Technical Information Service

5301 Shawnee Road
Alexandria, VA 22312 USA


This report formulates a multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) land-use model within a spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The spatial MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensity of urban development patterns over large geographic areas, while also explicitly acknowledging geographic proximity-based spatial dependencies in these patterns. At a methodological level, the report focuses on specifying and estimating a spatial MDCP model that allows the dependent variable to exist in multiple discrete states with an intensity associated with each discrete state. The formulation also accommodates spatial dependencies, as well as spatial heterogeneity and heteroscedasticity, in the dependent variable, and should be applicable in a wide variety of fields where social and spatial dependencies between decision agents (or observation units) lead to spillover effects in multiple discrete-continuous choices (or states). A simulation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) approach to recover parameters from a cross-sectional spatial MDCP model. The results show that the MACML approach does well in recovering parameters. An empirical demonstration of the approach is undertaken using the city of Austin parcel level land use data.

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This document was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program.

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Corporate Authors:

University of Texas, Austin

Center for Transportation Research, 1616 Guadalupe Street
Austin, TX 78701-1255 USA

Southwest Region University Transportation Center

Texas A&M University
3135 TAMU
College Station, TX 77843-3135 USA

Research and Innovative Technology Administration

1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590 USA


Dubey, Subodh K
Bhat, Chandra R



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Figures; References; Tables

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Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning